Buy-everything premarket: S&P futures +2.16%, VIX at 15, peso adds 8 centavos

Good morning!

Everything's a buy this morning

S&P futures are +2.16% in premarket, more than triple a normal session's move, and the whole tape smells like a scramble for beta. The VIX collapses 2.24 points to 15.47, though the MOVE holds at 80.73 — equity vol has vanished while bond vol hasn't gotten the memo.

Yesterday's FOMC lit the fuse. I don't have the statement confirmed in my data, but yields down, equities up and volatility on the floor read only one way.

The peso rode the wave, recovering 8 centavos from 17.2454 to 17.1702. One oddity worth flagging: gold is up 0.49% to 4,409 in the middle of a risk-on burst, a hint that not everyone is buying the calm without a hedge. Mexico's IPC, by contrast, closed yesterday -1.11% at 63,507; the global bounce didn't cross the border.

Where the pair sits after the bounce

At 17.17, the currency trades about 10 centavos under the rolling ceiling, which climbs to 17.2740 today (it read 17.1891 yesterday; the window stretched). The ten-day floor stays pinned at 16.8487.

One session doesn't erase a month: USD/MXN came from 16.89 in late August and printed as high as 17.24. It's now running 3.3 times its typical range above its 20-day mean, extended for sure, but stretched isn't a reversal signal and I'm not leaning on it.

Here's the uncomfortable part for a desk that follows me long dollars: today the market pushes against that bias on every front. I keep it because my line didn't break, not because the tape agrees.

What holds the bias up, and tonight's judge

The September 10 dollar call worked: USD/MXN rose 1.66% over the following five sessions and matured today. Continuity, not a victory lap.

Two dollar pillars only softened: the 10Y eases to 4.95% (my trigger sits at 4.80) and crude drops 2.69% to 99.67, still glued to 100. While those hold, Banxico's rate advantage over the Fed — a light contributor in the index at a 41 subscore — isn't enough to sink the dollar. The Risk On at 70 describes today's regime, not where the peso heads next.

The Bank of England already decided at dawn and I don't have its result confirmed; the Bank of Japan is still ahead of us, deciding at 21:00 Mexico City, and it's the loose end that can move global risk before Mexico opens Friday.

I keep the dollar bias: I drop it if the 10Y closes below 4.80% or the pair loses 16.85.

— See you tomorrow for Friday's view.