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Daily macro intelligence · MXN

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El Pre-Market2026-07-2851EDITORIAL

Oil slides, peso holds at 17.46: score eases to 51 into the FOMC

The morning markets briefing, before Wall Street opens.

The peso opens on the front foot at 17.46 as WTI drops 1.80% to 81.12 on cooler Middle East tension and the 10Y eases to 4.63%. The Risk On score slips from 57 to 51 as the market squares up ahead of tomorrow's FOMC. With no early US hard data, today is a waiting game.

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5m intraday data · Yahoo Finance · UTC · FX pairs only (24h market)

— Exchange rates

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EUR/MXN

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EUR/USD

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— What to watch today

MXN🛢️ WTI at 81.12 (-1.80%) extends yesterday's relief on the US–Iran pause. Continued decompression takes pressure off both the 10Y and the peso; a bounce above $84 would bring the noise back.

FED🏦 FOMC tomorrow Jul 29, 2:00 PM ET: market prices ~65% odds of no change, with possible hawkish dissents (Hammack, Logan). Tone matters more than the rate; no forward guidance expected.

FED📊 Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed at 9:00 CDMX (10:00 ET), not yet out. The only US print today; light market-mover versus the FOMC, but watch the expectations component.

— What the index means

The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:

0–32

Risk-off

Fear in control: money runs to safety (dollar, gold, Treasuries). Usually a weak peso and markets selling off.

33–49

Defensive

Caution: not panic, but the market eases off the gas. A time to protect more than to reach for risk.

50–67

Constructive

Healthy appetite: a selective willingness to take risk. The peso and risk assets find support.

68–100

Risk-on

Full appetite: the market buys risk with confidence. A favorable backdrop for the peso and emerging markets.

The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.

— Casos

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DERIVADOS · OPCIONES · COBERTURA

Hedging Without Fear

Options 101 for normal people: what delta and theta actually mean, and when hedging your FX or commodity exposure is genuinely worth it.

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— Next monetary policy decisions

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— Advanced data

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Correlation · VIX vs USD/MXN (90d)

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