Index track record
Every score is published before the open and written to the archive — nothing is edited after the fact. This is the complete history.
Index and USD/MXN over the same days, aligned: move the cursor and read both values for the same date (the crosshair is synced). Click any point to read that day's view. Stacked panels on purpose — two scales on one plane mislead the eye. Reading tip: a high score usually coincides with USD/MXN falling (strong peso).
| Jul 28 | 51 | CONSTRUCTIVE | Oil slides, peso holds at 17.46: score eases to 51 into the FOMC |
| Jul 27 | 57 | CONSTRUCTIVE | Oil craters 6% and eases the 10Y: peso opens firm at 17.46, score jumps to 57 |
| Jul 24 | 46 | DEFENSIVE | Crude drops 3.40% and the peso barely breathes: USD/MXN steady at 17.49 |
| Jul 23 | 42 | DEFENSIVE | Oil sends 10Y to 4.70%, peso foots the bill: score slips to 42 |
| Jul 22 | 48 | DEFENSIVE | Risk score deflates to 48 as the 10Y at 4.64% cools the peso's bounce |
| Jul 21 | 62 | CONSTRUCTIVE | Peso breaks to 17.38 and score jumps to 62 as Section 122 fades |
| Jul 20 | 49 | DEFENSIVE | No data, Iran runs it: peso slips to 17.49 as risk score climbs to 49 defensive |
| Jul 17 | 40 | DEFENSIVE | Trump's Brazil tariffs hit the peso: USD/MXN jumps to 17.51 and the score drops to 40 |
| Jul 16 | 50 | CONSTRUCTIVE | Firm US data stalls the peso: 10Y flirts with 4.60% and the score slips to 50 |
| Jul 15 | 62 | CONSTRUCTIVE | Soft CPI drags USD/MXN to 17.39, flirting with the 17.36 floor |
Every morning the view publishes a falsifiable stance. Here it stands against what USD/MXN actually did over the next 5 trading days — no retroactive edits.
| Jul 28 | PRO-PESO | — | ⏳ pending | Me vuelvo neutral si el 10Y recupera 4.70% sostenido o el par cierra arriba de 17.5531. |
| Jul 27 | PRO-PESO | — | ⏳ pending | Me vuelvo neutral si el 10Y recupera 4.70% sostenido o el USD/MXN cierra arriba de 17.5… |
| Jul 24 | PRO-USD | — | ⏳ pending | Me vuelvo neutral si el USD/MXN cierra debajo de 17.3612 o el 10Y perfora 4.60% sostenido. |
| Jul 23 | PRO-USD | — | ⏳ pending | Un retroceso del 10Y por debajo de 4.60% con crudo enfriando me devuelve a neutral. |
| Jul 22 | PRO-PESO | — | ⏳ pending | Un cierre de USD/MXN arriba de 17.5752 me vuelve neutral. |
| Jul 21 | PRO-PESO | — | ⏳ pending | Un cierre sostenido del 10Y arriba de 4.65% que despierte risk-off me vuelve neutral. |
| Jul 20 | NEUTRAL | +0.03% | ✓ hit | Una ruptura de 17.64 con el 10Y sobre 4.60% invalida el sesgo neutral y abre pro-dólar. |
| Jul 17 | PRO-USD | — | ⏳ pending | Un regreso del USD/MXN debajo de 17.44 con el ES recuperando color me devuelve a neutral. |
| Jul 16 | NEUTRAL | +0.61% | ✗ miss | Vuelvo pro-peso solo si el 10Y cede debajo de 4.55% con datos suaves; si supera y sosti… |
| Jul 15 | PRO-PESO | +0.18% | ✗ miss | El sesgo pro-peso se apaga si el 10Y rompe y sostiene por encima de 4.60%. |
| Jul 14 | PRO-PESO | -0.09% | ✓ hit | Un CPI caliente que empuje el 10Y arriba de 4.60% me vuelve neutral. |
| Jul 13 | PRO-PESO | -0.59% | ✓ hit | El sesgo se invalida si el 10Y rompe 4.60% sostenido o el CPI supera expectativas, lo q… |
| Jul 10 | PRO-PESO | — | ⏳ pending | El sesgo se invalida si el 10Y americano rompe 4.60% sostenido o si el CPI del martes s… |
Evaluation rule (fixed): pro-peso hits if USD/MXN closed lower 5 trading days later; pro-USD if it closed higher; neutral if the move was ≤0.35% either way. Stances are published since Jul 10, 2026; the sample grows one point per trading day. Green = stronger peso.
Average market return over the 5 and 10 trading days after each index band, across the views actually published. For USD/MXN, negative = the peso appreciated.
| Band | Views | USD/MXN +5d | USD/MXN +10d | S&P +5d | S&P +10d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENSIVE | 6 | +0.31% | +0.15% | -0.68% | +0.46% |
| CONSTRUCTIVE | 13 | +0.03% | -0.32% | -0.19% | -0.12% |
| RISK-ON | 8 | +0.34% | +1.04% | +0.30% | +0.17% |
Sample: 27 views with at least 5 days of subsequent history. The sample is still small and grows by one view per trading day — this is evidence under construction, not a promise of returns. Not investment advice.
What USD/MXN did after each index band, across ~1,190 trading days (Jul 2021 → Jul 2026). The surprising read: the extremes are contrarian signals.
| Band | Days | USD/MXN +5d | USD/MXN +10d | Peso gained (5d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISK-OFF | 35 | -0.86% | -1.69% | 80% ★ |
| DEFENSIVE | 415 | 0.00% | -0.14% | 55% |
| CONSTRUCTIVE | 708 | -0.07% | -0.04% | 57% |
| RISK-ON | 37 | +0.19% | +0.33% | 51% |
★ The stat that matters: after a RISK-OFF day, the peso appreciated over the next 5 days 80% of the time (historical base: 57%). Extreme panic has been a rebound zone, not an exit. The index describes TODAY's regime (a nowcast) — it is not a promise of returns or investment advice. Green = stronger peso (USD/MXN falling).
The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:
The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.