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2026-06-03

The peso holds, but all eyes are on the Fed

Risk On Score
38/ 100
DEFENSIVE
0 · risk-offrisk-on · 100
What the index means

The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:

032
Risk-off
Fear in control: money runs to safety (dollar, gold, Treasuries). Usually a weak peso and markets selling off.
3349
Defensive
Caution: not panic, but the market eases off the gas. A time to protect more than to reach for risk.
5067
Constructive
Healthy appetite: a selective willingness to take risk. The peso and risk assets find support.
68100
Risk-on
Full appetite: the market buys risk with confidence. A favorable backdrop for the peso and emerging markets.

The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.

En cristiano: el dólar subió poquito porque hay nervios antes del dato de CPI de EE.UU. de mañana. El mercado está en modo cauteloso, ni risk-on ni risk-off del todo.

El índice en 38 te dice casi todo: nadie quiere mover ficha antes del dato de inflación. El miedo está bajo (VIX tranquilo), pero el dólar fuerte mantiene a raya el apetito por riesgo.

Si necesitas dólares para un viaje o un pago, hoy no hay urgencia ni gran oportunidad: es un día de esperar y ver. La película de verdad empieza mañana a las 7:30 am.


In plain English: the dollar edged up slightly on nerves ahead of tomorrow's U.S. CPI print. The market is in cautious mode — not quite risk-on, not quite risk-off.

The index at 38 tells you almost everything: nobody wants to make a move before the inflation data. Fear is low (VIX is calm), but a strong dollar is keeping risk appetite in check.

If you need dollars for a trip or a payment, there's no urgency or great opportunity today — it's a wait-and-see day. The real show starts tomorrow at 7:30 a.m.

What happened after this view?
USD/MXN +5d
+0.55%
USD/MXN +10d
-0.17%
S&P +5d
-3.80%
S&P +10d
-1.77%

Market return over the trading days after publication. For USD/MXN, negative = the peso appreciated. Automatic evaluation — not investment advice.

ShareX

Index at the time of this note (2026-06-03) — the live value on the homepage may have changed.

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