Tech sells off, but fear is nowhere to be found

The market is doing something interesting today: technology is selling off hard (AAPL -3.4%, TSLA -3.5%, NVDA -1.9%) but nobody is buying protection. The VIX has spent days hovering around 20 — far from panic territory.

Why does the index read 81 if stocks are falling? Because the Risk On index doesn't measure whether the S&P is up or down today — it measures the risk environment: how much fear is out there, how strong the dollar is, whether bonds are nervous. And on all those fronts, the picture remains positive.

What is really driving the narrative today is oil. WTI fell -4% in the session, which sounds technical until you remember that Mexico exports crude. When the price falls, government revenues fall with it. It's not a crisis, but it is a reminder of how much the country's fiscal health depends on what happens in energy markets.

The peso is shining. USD/MXN at 17.38 — the lowest level of the week — thanks to a dollar that can't find its footing. The DXY below 100 is a signal that the world is not seeking refuge in dollars today. For as long as that lasts, the peso holds up.

If you're holding pesos and thinking about buying dollars: there's no urgency. The short-term technical range puts support at 17.25 and resistance at 17.52 — you're in the middle of the channel, with no clear breakout signal in either direction.