Bitcoin rips 5.97% to 77,393, lifting risk; peso firms 5 centavos to 16.89, score 66

Happy Friday! Let's close out the week.

Bitcoin reignites beta with a near four-sigma jump

Bitcoin rips +5.97% to 77,393, the most unusual move on the board (z +3.9), nearly four times its typical day. When speculative money chases this kind of beta, the risk pulse bleeds into the rest of the complex.

Gold rides along at +2.38% to 4,624, another high in this week's uptrend. Crypto and metal climbing together speaks more to abundant liquidity and a hedging bid than to outright fear.

Note: ES futures bounce +0.49% after yesterday's red close (S&P -0.87% to 7,641). Appetite is breathing again.

The peso scrapes its floor with carry as anchor

USD/MXN slips 5 centavos to 16.8970, sitting just 2 centavos above the ten-day support at 16.8800. The local unit leans on a rate premium that remains the structural case for the trade.

The Banxico–Fed gap of 2.87pp pays to stay in pesos, and Chicago specs back it up: net long 83,673 contracts, adding +7,130 in the COT week. Positioning is firmly on the peso's side.

More telling: the 20-day peso↔10Y correlation sank to -0.44. The currency strengthens even with US yields firm — a dislocation that often precedes stretches of peso strength.

The curve holds its steepening with the 10Y pinned at 4.70%

The 10Y is unchanged today at 4.70%, after the yield backup that sank Wall Street yesterday. The 2s10s stays positive at 0.46pp, an orderly steepening.

That shape is carry-friendly: the front end anchors the differential while the long end breathes the rate-cut story. FedWatch already prices ~83% odds of a September trim.

View: peso bias while the floor holds

My take: the bias favors the peso as long as the currency respects the 16.88 zone and the rate gap doesn't compress. With the dollar contained (DXY 98.77) and the premium paying, staying long peso makes sense. I'm running with the historical base, which is thin — 54%, barely better than a coin flip — so here the catalyst outweighs the statistic.

I flip to neutral if the pair closes sustained above 17.16 or the 10Y breaks 4.75%. Yesterday we flagged the floor hugging the pair; today we're testing it again.

The calendar matters: the Canada tariff pause expires at today's close, and next week Jackson Hole with Warsh's debut plus the Aug 26 PCE will set the tone. Risk On climbs to 66/100, CONSTRUCTIVE, up from yesterday's 54 — VIX at 15.44, a firm peso and lit-up beta push the score higher. Appetite is in charge, but keep one eye on the trade clock.

— Have a great weekend — see you Monday. ☕