The dollar jumps 13 centavos to 17.12, the peso's ten-day ceiling
Happy Monday — let's get the week going!
The peso opens 13 centavos weaker: the dollar climbed from Friday's 16.9849 to 17.1182, opening right at the edge of its ten-day resistance. That's more than triple a normal day's move.
The jump took out Friday's 17.0367 ceiling. The rolling range has walked higher and today the cap is the spot itself, 17.12. It isn't the level from three days ago, and I won't dress it up as continuity.
What moved it overnight
Crude did the heavy lifting: WTI +4.81% to 104.86, roughly one and a half times its typical range. With the barrel tightening again and the US 10-year at 4.98%, global risk appetite woke up defensive; S&P futures are down 0.75% pre-market.
Friday's CPI was the judge of the day. I don't have the final print in hand, but the tape read it hot: the long yield jumped and the currency lost ground. I'm treating that as a reaction rather than a confirmed number. If you run short dollar cover, what moves your day is energy and the Fed, not the domestic snapshot.
The scoreboard bills me for the 7th
Time to pay up. The pro-peso call from September 7 was invalidated: USD/MXN moved +1.38% over the five sessions and matured today. I misjudged how much the peso could absorb the crude bid; the rate gap weighed more than the local picture.
Where I stand
On Friday I said I'd let the dollar go only if the ten-year slipped below 4.80% or the pair closed under 16.85. Neither triggered: the yield sits at 4.98% and the spot opens at its ceiling. I stay dollar-side into Wednesday's FOMC, with the Risk On index at 43 (DEFENSIVE) from 64 on Friday.
The uncomfortable bit, laid out plainly: Chicago specs are still net long peso —94,732 contracts as of September 8— so positioning leans against my read. If crude fades and those longs push, today's ceiling gets tested fast.
Wednesday at 12:00 CDMX the Fed runs the show; while the 10Y holds above 4.80% and the pair above 16.85, I stay long dollar.
— See you tomorrow for Tuesday's view.
The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:
The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.
Index at the time of this note (2026-09-14) — the live value on the homepage may have changed.
Liked the analysis?
Get the Pre-Market every morning, before Wall Street opens.
Get The Pre-Market every morning
One short email before the open, no spam.