FOMC day: the peso opens at 17.13, flirting with its 10-day ceiling

Good morning! Today is a Mexican holiday (Día de la Independencia): local markets are closed, but we're here — Wall Street is open and the peso doesn't rest. 🇲🇽

It's all about one print today: at noon CDMX the Fed sets rates, and until then everything else is warm-up. USD/MXN opens at 17.13, barely moved (+0.06%) after yesterday's jump, flirting with its 10-day ceiling.

The FOMC, verdict still pending

Yesterday I wrote that the Fed decided "tomorrow." That tomorrow is here, and as I type this the statement is still ahead of us. There's no result until midday, and anyone handing you one now is making it up.

The tape comes in pricing a hawkish stance, with as many as two increases on the radar and the 10-year at 4.98%, a whisker from 5%. Validate that script and the rate gap widens against the peso; soften the message and carry steps back in to defend the currency.

The 20-day peso-vs-US-rate correlation sits at +0.28: when yields climb, the currency tends to give ground. Not a law, but it frames why the pair has been grinding higher for days.

Wall Street bounces, local stocks sag

An opening split worth reading: the S&P closed at 7586 (-0.45%), yet futures are up +1.14% pre-market, more than double a normal day's move. Across the border, Mexico's IPC is down 1.11%.

This is the kind of morning nobody wants risk on the book before the statement: liquidity feels thin and futures are sketching a signal the cash market hasn't confirmed.

That equity bounce, a VIX at 16.80 and a green Bitcoin hold the Risk On index at 58 (CONSTRUCTIVE). Global appetite is breathing; the local board has less air.

Still leaning dollar

My call, plainly: I'm staying pro-dollar. Yesterday's trigger — cut the view if the US 10-year drops below 4.80% or spot closes under 16.85 — never fired, so it stands on the same numbers.

Accounting time: the pro-peso call from September 9 was invalidated, with the pair running +1.31% over five sessions. I underweighted the rate premium against the local data again.

What bugs me: spot trades 3.7 ATR above its 20-day mean, a textbook stretch. Yet fading that stretch loses more often than it wins, so it hands me no license to flip sides.

And the run doesn't end today: the Bank of England decides at dawn tomorrow and the Bank of Japan overnight.

The judge lands at noon; until then, 17.19 is the ceiling to watch.

— See you tomorrow for Thursday's view.