Bitcoin rips 5% and the S&P eyes a record; the peso won't budge from 17.19

Happy Monday — let's get the week going!

Bitcoin sets the tone

Bitcoin opens +5.06%, more than four times its normal daily move over the past three months. It's the loudest signal on the tape, and it doesn't come alone: S&P futures point +1.40% toward another record and the VIX sits at 14.88, equity vol on the floor.

Crude keeps falling: WTI −6.84% to 93.44, deepening Friday's rout and taking pressure off the inflation story that hung over September. The Risk On index climbs from 60 to 69, back in RISK-ON territory, driven by bitcoin (subindex 99), the S&P (91) and that calm in equity fear.

The peso isn't playing along

With this backdrop, the playbook says a carry currency should be firmer. It isn't: the pair opens at 17.1898, barely −0.17%, pinned to the top of its ten-day range.

Here's what doesn't add up: it trades 3.8 ATR above its 20-day mean, stretched, and still won't give ground despite the tailwind. If risk-on were going to pull it lower, it would have by now.

An accountability note: the pro-dollar call from September 14 matured today and paid off, with USD/MXN up 1.26% over five sessions. I stepped off that run on Friday and turned to the peso; the read still holds because the ceiling capped the move and the tape is cooperating.

Rates, Banxico and where I stand

The 10Y eases 4bp to 4.96%, MOVE ticks up to 80.64 without drama, and the 2s10s curve stays positive at 0.27pp. Nothing in US rates is pressing the currency today; the 20-day peso-to-10Y correlation is +0.02, essentially nil.

Positioning still leans peso: Chicago specs are net long 87,782 contracts as of Sept 15, though they trimmed nearly 7,000 on the week. Consensus is starting to shed some of that load.

I stay peso-biased, with the rolling ceiling at 17.2711 (down from Friday's 17.2740) as the line in the sand: a close above it sends me back to the dollar.

Banxico on Thursday is the next judge; until then, I'm watching whether the currency finally confirms the tape.

— See you tomorrow for Tuesday's view.