Firm US data stalls the peso: 10Y flirts with 4.60% and the score slips to 50
The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:
The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.
Good morning!
The US consumer spoiled the disinflation party
Yesterday's soft CPI had the peso flirting with 17.36. Today the script flips: June retail sales rose +0.33% MoM, the ninth straight monthly gain, with the core up +0.36%.
Add jobless claims: 208k versus 217k expected. Consumption and jobs stay firm, and that drains ammunition from anyone betting on aggressive Fed cuts.
The market already digested it: ES futures in the red (-0.41%) and yields higher. Yesterday's all-dovish snapshot cooled off.
The peso gives back ground, but the premium holds
USD/MXN trades at 17.4463, a modest +0.16% that erases part of yesterday's rally. Nothing dramatic: spot came from 17.63 early in the month, so it's still in the strong half of its range.
The Banxico–Fed differential at 2.87pp keeps the rate trade attractive, and realized vol at 6.99% invites patience. One good retail print doesn't wipe out the carry cushion.
The 17.3597 floor held and the 17.6406 ceiling looks distant. Consolidation, not reversal.
The curve refuses to flatten
The 10Y climbs to 4.59% (+1.08%), right where we drew the line yesterday. The long end is feeling pressure: the 30Y at 5.08% and a still-positive 2s10s at 0.40pp.
This is hawkish-tinged steepening: the market demands more term premium when data surprises to the upside. It's not panic —MOVE at 68 confirms that— but it's a reminder of who's in charge.
View: neutral until the 10Y decides
Here's my market read: yesterday the bias favored the peso with the 10Y below 4.60%. Today the yield is glued to that level and the data is pushing it higher, so I turn neutral.
I go back to pro-peso only if the yield slips below 4.55% on soft data; if it clears and holds 4.60%, with crude pushing, the bias tilts to the dollar.
Looking ahead, the July 23 ECB is the next catalyst; EUR/MXN at 19.98 is already pricing it. Today, with no local events, the peso dances to the tune of US rates.
The Risk On score eases from 62 to 50 and stays CONSTRUCTIVE: appetite is alive, but the hard data took the momentum out of yesterday's narrative.
— See you tomorrow for Friday's view.
Market return over the trading days after publication. For USD/MXN, negative = the peso appreciated. Automatic evaluation — not investment advice.
Index at the time of this note (2026-07-16) — the live value on the homepage may have changed.
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