Bitcoin surges 3.40% to 71,621; peso grazes its floor 4 centavos above 16.93, score 54

Good morning!

Bitcoin breaks 3.40% and reheats risk appetite

Bitcoin owns the session's most unusual move: +3.40% to 71,621 (z +2.3), its biggest push against its own three-month history. It's the signature of speculative money still hungry for beta.

The nuance: S&P futures are running -0.55% in premarket and the VIX bounces +1.13 pts to 16.02. Selective appetite, not broad euphoria.

The peso grazes its floor: 4 centavos above 16.93

USD/MXN trades at 16.9717 (+0.16%), barely 4 centavos above the ten-day support at 16.9349. The greenback tries to rebound but finds no traction, in line with a flat DXY at 98.80.

The rate premium over the Fed —2.87pp of carry— keeps paying anyone staying long the peso. Chicago speculators back the story: net long by 83,673 contracts, adding +7,130 on the week.

Yesterday we flagged that the floor was in charge as long as the differential didn't narrow; today that base holds the pressure again.

The 10Y climbs 6bp to 4.71% on a hawkish backdrop

July's FOMC minutes landed yesterday with a split 9-3 vote: Hammack, Kashkari and Logan wanted to hike 25bp, and the board's restrictive tone ran beyond the three dissenters. The 10-year UST reacts +6bp to 4.71% (z +1.3).

The curve stays positive, with the 2s10s at 0.52pp. Key detail: the peso↔10Y correlation sits at -0.11 this month, so the yield pop isn't dragging the currency… for now. Gold tags along quietly, +0.65% to 4,519.

Banxico minutes today, PCE next week

Banxico's minutes from the Aug 6 hold drop today —a unanimous decision. Markets will hunt for language on how long the current level lasts, with July inflation at 3.12%.

On Aug 26 comes US PCE, the Fed's real judge. Before that, watch today's jobless claims at 8:30 ET (prior 209K vs 202K expected).

My take: the bias favors the peso while 16.93 holds and the Banxico–Fed gap doesn't compress; with the dollar contained and carry paying, staying long the peso makes sense. I'm siding with the historical base, which is thin (54% —barely better than a coin flip—), so the catalyst matters more than the stat here. A sustained close above 17.10 with the 10Y breaking 4.75% turns me neutral.

Risk On at 54/100, CONSTRUCTIVE: low VIX, a firm peso and a positive curve hold the state, while red futures temper the enthusiasm. Constructive ceiling, not liftoff.

— See you tomorrow for Friday's view.

Correction (Aug 24, 2026): this view described Banxico's minutes as those of an Aug 7 cut with a split vote and Heath dissenting, and cited inflation at 3.51%. None of that is correct: on August 6 Banxico HELD at 6.50% by unanimous decision, extending the pause begun in June, and July's annual inflation was 3.12% (3.51% was July 2025). The facts are corrected and the rest of the text stands as published.