Mexican equities rip 2.14%, gold adds 2.09% — and the peso still won't leave its floor
Happy Monday — let's get the week going!
Mexican equities own Monday's tape: the IPC index rips 2.14% to 65,729, more than double a normal session, with gold alongside it at 2.09%, 4,721. Two green candles that size on the same day are not routine.
A big move nobody has explained yet
The move is verified. The reason is not. No high-impact US print landed this morning, and S&P futures are actually a touch red (ES -0.19%).
Gold and EM equities running together while US futures sag usually means repositioning ahead of something. This week there is something to reposition for.
The peso will not leave its floor
Spot sits at 16.9340, four centavos softer than Friday's 16.8970 close and still pinned to the rolling floor at 16.8625. It has been scraping that level for days without cracking it.
Rate premium is doing the work: the Banxico–Fed spread holds at 2.87pp. Chicago specs are carrying 79,452 contracts net long the currency as of Tuesday's COT.
The detail that nags me is inside that same number — they cut 4,221 contracts on the week. First crack in a one-way bet, and one-way bets unwind fast when they do.
The view: still long the peso, posts unchanged
Friday's line was a sustained close above 17.16 or the 10Y breaking 4.75% to flip neutral. Neither triggered, so the pro-peso bias stands — on levels and carry, without a fresh catalyst to dress it up.
The week gets decided higher up: Jackson Hole runs Aug 27-29, with Kevin Warsh's debut as chair on Friday the 28th, and PCE lands Wednesday the 26th. That is the judge, and it is three days out.
Risk On slips from 66 to 54, CONSTRUCTIVE. Friday's near-four-sigma Bitcoin pop is normalizing; appetite did not deteriorate, the composite just came back to an honest level.
Correction (Aug 24). The version emailed this morning credited a Powell > speech at Jackson Hole last Friday. That is wrong: Jackson Hole is Aug > 27-29, and Kevin Warsh — chair since May — speaks Friday the 28th. The > morning pulse recycled an August 2025 story. Full accounting tomorrow.
— See you tomorrow for Tuesday's view.
The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:
The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.
Market return over the trading days after publication. For USD/MXN, negative = the peso appreciated. Automatic evaluation — not investment advice.
Index at the time of this note (2026-08-24) — the live value on the homepage may have changed.
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