Mexican stocks jump 1.63% and global risk breathes, yet the peso stays stuck at 18.33
Happy Monday — let's get the week going!
A 1.63% pop in Mexican stocks caps a green week
Friday's closes left equity desks long: the IPC up 1.63% to 66,049 and the S&P 500 +0.59%, with the VIX parked at 15.51. Global risk appetite walks into Monday in a good mood.
Crude is up 2.08% this morning, a loose end from Friday, but it isn't what's driving the tape today.
Overnight USD/MXN eases to 18.3323 (-0.15%): a currency that's barely breathing rather than rallying.
Why 18.33 won't catch the bid
Here's the disconnect on my mind: the world is buying risk and the peso isn't cashing in. The 20-day peso–10Y correlation dropped to +0.15, so the 8bp relief in the note (10Y at 5.24%) rolls right off the currency.
The real weight is the entire US curve: with the 2Y at 4.77% and the 10Y above 5%, Banxico's premium over the Fed has compressed to 2.62pp. That cushion is the thinnest I've been flagging, and it bothers me.
The pair sits 4.5 ATR above its 20-day mean, stretched as rarely before. If that tempts you to fade it, mind this: the 21-year record says that side loses (47%). Technical color, nothing to trade on.
Dollar stays bid, and the scoreboard bills me for Oct 5
First the tab: the neutral call from October 5 was invalidated — USD/MXN moved +0.94% over five sessions and matured today. I expected a range and the pair walked to the dollar.
A loose end from Friday: INEGI's September inflation was the judge, and I still don't have the figure confirmed in the digest, so I won't put a number on it.
On Friday I drew the line at 18.00 to drop the dollar bias; with spot at 18.33 that trigger never came close, so the pro-dollar lean stands. The rolling ceiling rises from 18.4219 to 18.4964, the next test.
The Risk On reading climbs from 49 to 53 (CONSTRUCTIVE) on a low VIX and a firm S&P, though a weak carry (sub 37) and Bitcoin (sub 28) weigh it down: the mood improved, the peso didn't inherit it.
As long as it doesn't close below 18.00 I hold the dollar; Thursday's US CPI is the next judge.
— See you tomorrow for Tuesday's view.
The Risk On index sums up global risk appetite — with a Mexico focus — in a single 0–100 number. Depending on where it lands, the day falls into one of these four bands:
The Risk On index is a proprietary indicator, designed and maintained by Mauricio Mercenario. It is a market-reading tool, not investment advice.
Market return over the trading days after publication. For USD/MXN, negative = the peso appreciated. Automatic evaluation — not investment advice.
Index at the time of this note (2026-10-12) — the live value on the homepage may have changed.
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